Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $114 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 50%
$114.13
-$39.1
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $35.23 | $35.28 | +$0.05 | 42% 1625-2287 (3912) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.99 | +$0.05 | 29% 1100-2665 (3765) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.99 | +$0.05 | 30% 240-572 (812) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $18.18 | $18.21 | +$0.03 | 46% 1095-1300 (2395) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $32.6 | $0.05 | -$31.13 | 31% 161-352 (513) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $32.7 | $0.02 | -$5.41 | 28% 1018-2625 (3643) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.66 | $0.01 | -$1.65 | 43% 5066-6598 (11664) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.09 | $0.01 | -$1.08 | 52% 1696-1538 (3234) |
Invested
$35.23
Value
$35.28
PnL
+$0.05
Record
42%
1625-2287 (3912)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.05
Record
29%
1100-2665 (3765)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.05
Record
30%
240-572 (812)
Invested
$18.18
Value
$18.21
PnL
+$0.03
Record
46%
1095-1300 (2395)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$32.6
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$31.13
Record
31%
161-352 (513)
Invested
$32.7
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$5.41
Record
28%
1018-2625 (3643)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.66
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.65
Record
43%
5066-6598 (11664)
Invested
$1.09
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.08
Record
52%
1696-1538 (3234)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.