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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Dogecoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

6

Up 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$545.23

Combined PnL

-$3.58

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$8.63

Total Shares9

Combined PnL+$1.06

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares22

Combined PnL-$4.64

Down — 33%Up — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$550	$536.6	-$2.32	52% 3474-3256 (6730)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$275	—	-$275
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$268.3	$536.6	+$272.68
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$5.94	$6	+$0.06	98% 3857-81 (3938)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 23¢	$1.89	—	-$1.89	49% 2317-2371 (4688)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$1.14	—	-$1.14	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$1.32	—	-$1.32	48% 2195-2413 (4608)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 62¢	$1.63	$2.63	+$1	52% 2738-2492 (5230)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$0.28	—	-$0.28	50% 1577-1608 (3185)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$536.6

PnL

-$2.32

Record

52%

3474-3256 (6730)

Both legs:

Up$27550¢-$275

Down$268.350¢+$272.68

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.06

Record

98%

3857-81 (3938)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$1.89

Value

—

PnL

-$1.89

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

—

PnL

-$1.14

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

—

PnL

-$1.32

Record

48%

2195-2413 (4608)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$1.63

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$1

Record

52%

2738-2492 (5230)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$0.28

Value

—

PnL

-$0.28

Record

50%

1577-1608 (3185)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf566af53...1f8c21

Slug

doge-updown-5m-1794700800

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $6

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

MayorMamdani

Down — $2.63

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

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