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Up
MayorMamdani<$100UpDownDown
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Down
ohioismCTR<$100Down
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Dogecoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 80%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$553.33
Combined PnL
-$26.46
Smart Money Signal
Down
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up1 trader
Total Value$3.33
Total Shares3
Combined PnL-$0.47
Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares2,028
Combined PnL-$25.99
Up — 20%Down — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | $550 | +$0.35 | 52% 3418-3216 (6634) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $275 | $550 | +$275 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $272.5 | — | -$274.66 | |
MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $3.8 | $3.33 | -$0.47 | 52% 2695-2461 (5156) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $25 | — | -$25 | 52% 1395-1293 (2688) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $0.24 | — | -$0.24 | 42% 1702-2303 (4005) |
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 6.9¢ | $0.7 | — | -$0.7 | 44% 2099-2693 (4792) |
ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 47% 2089-2333 (4422) |
SO
soswald1ARB<$100Invested
$550
Value
$550
PnL
+$0.35
Record
52%
3418-3216 (6634)
Both legs:
Up$27550¢+$275
Down$272.550¢-$274.66
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.33
PnL
-$0.47
Record
52%
2695-2461 (5156)
0X
0x50f7CTR<$100Invested
$25
Value
—
PnL
-$25
Record
52%
1395-1293 (2688)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$0.24
Value
—
PnL
-$0.24
Record
42%
1702-2303 (4005)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.7
Value
—
PnL
-$0.7
Record
44%
2099-2693 (4792)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
47%
2089-2333 (4422)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xc78c5692...1c581d
Slug
doge-updown-5m-1794691500