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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Dogecoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
Total Value
$35.47
Combined PnL
-$5.5
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$35.47
Total Shares35
Combined PnL+$3.92
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares25
Combined PnL-$9.43
Up — 40%Down — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 79.7¢ | $14.34 | $18 | +$3.66 | 51% 3318-3179 (6497) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.5¢ | $17.21 | $17.47 | +$0.26 | 98% 3651-75 (3726) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 12.9¢ | $2.14 | — | -$2.14 | 50% 2231-2229 (4460) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $7.2 | — | -$7.2 | 51% 3103-3041 (6144) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 4¢ | $0.09 | — | -$0.09 | 52% 1374-1272 (2646) |
SO
soswald1<$100Invested
$14.34
Value
$18
PnL
+$3.66
Record
51%
3318-3179 (6497)
HO
hoodquant<$100Invested
$17.21
Value
$17.47
PnL
+$0.26
Record
98%
3651-75 (3726)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$2.14
Value
—
PnL
-$2.14
Record
50%
2231-2229 (4460)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$7.2
Value
—
PnL
-$7.2
Record
51%
3103-3041 (6144)
0X
0x50f7CTR<$100Invested
$0.09
Value
—
PnL
-$0.09
Record
52%
1374-1272 (2646)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xeb6b8ee9...ecbc3c
Slug
doge-updown-5m-1794680400