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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Dogecoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Down 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$582.7

Combined PnL

-$24.97

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$38.23

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$1.94

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares41

Combined PnL-$26.91

Up — 43%Down — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$550	$544.47	+$16.69	51% 3170-3070 (6240)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$272.24	$544.47	+$274.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$257.4	—	-$257.43
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$20.79	$21	+$0.21	98% 3425-72 (3497)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 53.9¢	$20.82	—	-$20.82	50% 2996-2942 (5938)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 89.5¢	$13.98	$10.23	-$3.1	48% 1394-1507 (2901)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 31¢	$2.17	$7	+$4.83	47% 1973-2229 (4202)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 34.3¢	$3.8	—	-$3.8	50% 2116-2116 (4232)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$1.64	—	-$1.64	47% 2017-2278 (4295)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 13¢	$0.65	—	-$0.65	52% 2502-2335 (4837)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$544.47

PnL

+$16.69

Record

51%

3170-3070 (6240)

Both legs:

Up$272.2450¢+$274.12

Down$257.450¢-$257.43

Invested

$20.79

Value

$21

PnL

+$0.21

Record

98%

3425-72 (3497)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$20.82

Value

—

PnL

-$20.82

Record

50%

2996-2942 (5938)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$13.98

Value

$10.23

PnL

-$3.1

Record

48%

1394-1507 (2901)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$2.17

Value

$7

PnL

+$4.83

Record

47%

1973-2229 (4202)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

—

PnL

-$3.8

Record

50%

2116-2116 (4232)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$1.64

Value

—

PnL

-$1.64

Record

47%

2017-2278 (4295)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$0.65

Value

—

PnL

-$0.65

Record

52%

2502-2335 (4837)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcd0a1b10...6cd9c6

Slug

doge-updown-5m-1794662100

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $21

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $10.23

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $7

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $0

MayorMamdani

Down — $0

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