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DownUp
UpandDownSyndrome<$100DownUpUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Dogecoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Up 75%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$108.14
Combined PnL
-$44.62
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares62
Combined PnL-$45.76
Down1 trader
Total Value$14.14
Total Shares14
Combined PnL+$1.14
Up — 75%Down — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 84.4¢ | $123.62 | $94 | -$29.62 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 84.4¢ | $79.37 | $94 | +$14.63 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59¢ | $44.25 | — | -$44.25 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 67.6¢ | $41.7 | — | -$40.31 | 64% 24039-13275 (37314) |
UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 91.9¢ | $13 | $14.14 | +$1.14 | 63% 52187-31091 (83278) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $1.9 | — | -$1.9 | 56% 58346-45004 (103350) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 28.3¢ | $3.55 | — | -$3.55 | 55% 18044-14641 (32685) |
UN
uninformedflowwARB<$100Invested
$123.62
Value
$94
PnL
-$29.62
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Both legs:
Down$79.3784.4¢+$14.63
Up$44.2559¢-$44.25
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$41.7
Value
—
PnL
-$40.31
Record
64%
24039-13275 (37314)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$13
Value
$14.14
PnL
+$1.14
Record
63%
52187-31091 (83278)
0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100Invested
$1.9
Value
—
PnL
-$1.9
Record
56%
58346-45004 (103350)
KA
Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100Invested
$3.55
Value
—
PnL
-$3.55
Record
55%
18044-14641 (32685)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x48b87981...258063
Slug
doge-updown-15m-1793459700