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DownDownUpUp
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Down
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Dogecoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$115.11
Combined PnL
-$18.36
Smart Money Signal
Down
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares44
Combined PnL-$32.92
Up2 traders
Total Value$36.47
Total Shares36
Combined PnL+$14.55
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 57.1¢ | $102.91 | $78.64 | -$24.26 | 57% 71205-54305 (125510) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.1¢ | $52.05 | — | -$52.05 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.7¢ | $50.85 | $78.64 | +$27.79 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $30.57 | — | -$30.57 | 56% 58298-44982 (103280) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 52.5¢ | $34.46 | $20.99 | +$9.77 | 64% 23928-13193 (37121) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 69.1¢ | $10.7 | $15.48 | +$4.78 | 55% 18043-14638 (32681) |
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $2.35 | — | -$2.35 | 63% 52154-31006 (83160) |
UN
uninformedflowwARB<$100Invested
$102.91
Value
$78.64
PnL
-$24.26
Record
57%
71205-54305 (125510)
Both legs:
Down$52.0557.1¢-$52.05
Up$50.8564.7¢+$27.79
0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100Invested
$30.57
Value
—
PnL
-$30.57
Record
56%
58298-44982 (103280)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$34.46
Value
$20.99
PnL
+$9.77
Record
64%
23928-13193 (37121)
KA
Kathod-Shi-14<$100Invested
$10.7
Value
$15.48
PnL
+$4.78
Record
55%
18043-14638 (32681)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$2.35
Value
—
PnL
-$2.35
Record
63%
52154-31006 (83160)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x3c691598...96e617
Slug
doge-updown-15m-1793448900