Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be above 4%?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 32¢ · $542 held · ends Nov 24
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$542.15
$60.19
29.1¢ → 32¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoatCTR | Yesavg 28.9¢ | $439.16 | $503.36 | +$64.2 | 51% 689-675 (1364) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $27.05 | $24.66 | -$2.39 | 15% 4992-29310 (34302) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $9.32 | $7.59 | -$1.73 | 16% 1410-7552 (8962) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $6.44 | $6.53 | +$0.1 | 23% 8560-28980 (37540) |
YoungAlphaGoatCTRInvested
$439.16
Value
$503.36
PnL
+$64.2
Record
51%
689-675 (1364)
2B9S<$100Invested
$27.05
Value
$24.66
PnL
-$2.39
Record
15%
4992-29310 (34302)
Invested
$9.32
Value
$7.59
PnL
-$1.73
Record
16%
1410-7552 (8962)
Invested
$6.44
Value
$6.53
PnL
+$0.1
Record
23%
8560-28980 (37540)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.