Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 3% and 4%?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 40¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 24
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
2 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$9.77
47¢ → 39.5¢
-16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
416h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoatARB<$100 | Yesavg 26.2¢ | $651.62 | $876.36 | +$224.74 | 49% 552-581 (1133) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.2¢ | $340.47 | $513.36 | +$181.74 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 53.3¢ | $320 | $363 | +$43 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Yesavg 47¢ | $940 | $775.27 | -$147.2 | 53% 8527-7603 (16130) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 50¢ | $450.33 | $544.45 | +$94.12 | 48% 1350-1485 (2835) |
 clazzy1 | Noavg 35¢ | $62.85 | $108.63 | +$45.79 | 65% 500-275 (775) |
 2B9SARB<$100 | Noavg 62.5¢ | $72.32 | $80 | +$7.68 | 17% 4487-21970 (26457) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62.5¢ | $50 | $48.4 | -$1.6 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.9¢ | $22.32 | $31.6 | +$9.28 | |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $10.3 | $7.82 | -$2.47 | 26% 7287-21050 (28337) |
YoungAlphaGoatARB<$100Invested
$651.62
Value
$876.36
PnL
+$224.74
Record
49%
552-581 (1133)
Both legs:
Invested
$940
Value
$775.27
PnL
-$147.2
Record
53%
8527-7603 (16130)
Invested
$450.33
Value
$544.45
PnL
+$94.12
Record
48%
1350-1485 (2835)
clazzy1Invested
$62.85
Value
$108.63
PnL
+$45.79
Record
65%
500-275 (775)
2B9SARB<$100Invested
$72.32
Value
$80
PnL
+$7.68
Record
17%
4487-21970 (26457)
Both legs:
Invested
$10.3
Value
$7.82
PnL
-$2.47
Record
26%
7287-21050 (28337)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.