Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 2% and 3%?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 8.3¢ · $167 held · ends Nov 24
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$166.58
-$58.91
15.3¢ → 8.3¢
-45% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoatCTR | Yesavg 15.5¢ | $126.34 | $72.36 | -$54.74 | 48% 492-539 (1031) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $52.23 | $46.78 | -$5.45 | 18% 4425-20750 (25175) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $43.6 | $27.34 | -$1.73 | 14% 508-3080 (3588) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $16.92 | $18.33 | +$1.41 | 53% 8421-7496 (15917) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $19.8 | $1.64 | +$0.65 | 27% 6994-19119 (26113) |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $67.2 | $0.13 | +$0.94 | 24% 770-2419 (3189) |
YoungAlphaGoatCTRInvested
$126.34
Value
$72.36
PnL
-$54.74
Record
48%
492-539 (1031)
2B9S<$100Invested
$52.23
Value
$46.78
PnL
-$5.45
Record
18%
4425-20750 (25175)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$43.6
Value
$27.34
PnL
-$1.73
Record
14%
508-3080 (3588)
Invested
$16.92
Value
$18.33
PnL
+$1.41
Record
53%
8421-7496 (15917)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$1.64
PnL
+$0.65
Record
27%
6994-19119 (26113)
Invested
$67.2
Value
$0.13
PnL
+$0.94
Record
24%
770-2419 (3189)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.