SG Sonnenhof Großaspach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 6.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 87¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$2.0K
$81.09
78.3¢ → 87.2¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 79.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$117.82 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 17.2¢ | $522.92 | $433.56 | -$89.36 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
FO foooool | Underavg 76.5¢ | $176 | $219.63 | +$43.62 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
 RN1 | Underavg 66.4¢ | $80.85 | $116.28 | +$35.43 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 16.6¢ | $38.55 | $10.46 | -$28.09 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 75.9¢ | $6.07 | $7.64 | +$1.57 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 91.6¢ | $2.18 | $2.27 | +$0.09 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
Invested
$1,124.87
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$117.82
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$522.92
Value
$433.56
PnL
-$89.36
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$176
Value
$219.63
PnL
+$43.62
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
RN1Invested
$80.85
Value
$116.28
PnL
+$35.43
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$38.55
Value
$10.46
PnL
-$28.09
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.07
Value
$7.64
PnL
+$1.57
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$2.18
Value
$2.27
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.