SG Sonnenhof Großaspach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 74¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 27

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$428.78

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 73.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares6,238

Combined PnL+$362.5

Under7 traders

Total Value$433.52

Total Shares660

Combined PnL+$66.28

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
aibaby	Overavg 81¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$125	50% 82-81 (163)
RN1	Overavg 29¢	$495.41	$1.2K	+$485.66	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$1.3K	$909.52	-$406.33	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
└ Over leg	Overavg 67.9¢	$400.84	$457.51	+$56.66
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.5¢	$915	$452.01	-$462.99
FO fooooolCTR	Underavg 74.4¢	$149.33	$133.62	-$15.7	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 68¢	$101.17	$111.59	+$10.41	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$14.72	$61.32	+$46.6	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 70¢	$47.88	$51.3	-$1.03	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Underavg 32.9¢	$18.4	$42	+$23.6	64% 954-532 (1486)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 75¢	$40.14	$40.41	+$0.27	76% 3880-1236 (5116)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 21.4¢	$15.82	$20.35	+$4.53	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 77¢	$17.58	$19.15	+$1.57	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 24.4¢	$15.48	$13.34	-$2.14	50% 32601-32144 (64745)

aibaby

Over

Invested

$4,049.96

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$125

Record

50%

82-81 (163)

RN1

Over

Invested

$495.41

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$485.66

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,315.85

Value

$909.52

PnL

-$406.33

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

Both legs:

Over$400.8467.9¢+$56.66

Under$91545.5¢-$462.99

fooooolCTR

Under

Invested

$149.33

Value

$133.62

PnL

-$15.7

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$101.17

Value

$111.59

PnL

+$10.41

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.72

Value

$61.32

PnL

+$46.6

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.88

Value

$51.3

PnL

-$1.03

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.4

Value

$42

PnL

+$23.6

Record

64%

954-532 (1486)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$40.14

Value

$40.41

PnL

+$0.27

Record

76%

3880-1236 (5116)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.82

Value

$20.35

PnL

+$4.53

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$17.58

Value

$19.15

PnL

+$1.57

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.48

Value

$13.34

PnL

-$2.14

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.