SG Sonnenhof Großaspach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$674.69

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 100¢

+65% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,311

Combined PnL+$669.01

Under7 traders

Total Value$248.04

Total Shares1,964

Combined PnL+$5.68

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP SparYel	Overavg 53¢	$235.85	$905.66	+$669.81	47% 18-20 (38)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 98.1¢	$331.47	$337.55	+$6.09	81% 2386-546 (2932)
RN1CTR	Underavg 9¢	$134.81	$142.3	+$7.49	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$80.88	$84.83	+$4.5	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$43.75	$43.75	+$4.1
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$37.13	$41.08	+$0.4
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$74.87	$74.87	-$0	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
RO Rocky31<$100	Overavg 92¢	$34.1	$33.72	-$0.37	73% 1437-531 (1968)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$13.4	$15.07	+$1.67	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 50.2¢	$15.14	$14.47	-$0.67	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$8.9	$9.4	+$0.49	50% 24829-24525 (49354)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 79¢	$14.89	$9.05	-$5.84	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$3.55	$3.74	+$0.2	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$1.2	$2.6	+$1.4	48% 4420-4876 (9296)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 50.8¢	$5.63	$0.05	-$5.58	54% 2609-2230 (4839)

SparYel

Over

Invested

$235.85

Value

$905.66

PnL

+$669.81

Record

47%

18-20 (38)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$331.47

Value

$337.55

PnL

+$6.09

Record

81%

2386-546 (2932)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$134.81

Value

$142.3

PnL

+$7.49

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$80.88

Value

$84.83

PnL

+$4.5

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

Both legs:

Invested

$74.87

Value

$74.87

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

Rocky31<$100

Over

Invested

$34.1

Value

$33.72

PnL

-$0.37

Record

73%

1437-531 (1968)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.4

Value

$15.07

PnL

+$1.67

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$15.14

Value

$14.47

PnL

-$0.67

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.9

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$0.49

Record

50%

24829-24525 (49354)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$14.89

Value

$9.05

PnL

-$5.84

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.2

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$1.4

Record

48%

4420-4876 (9296)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.63

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$5.58

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.