Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (70%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 30¢ · $73 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 100%
$73.38
$3.62
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 30%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 27.3¢ | $43.89 | $48.3 | +$4.42 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $24.8 | $24 | -$0.8 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $1.08 | $1.08 | +$0 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.