Spread: FC Augsburg (-3.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (83%) · SG Sonnenhof Großaspach at 89¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 27
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Neutral
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
6
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 83%
$5.9K
$197.12
84.4¢ → 88.6¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSG Sonnenhof Großaspach at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 82.5¢ | $3.9K | $4.0K | +$118.59 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
UP UpTheBlues | SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 98¢ | $827.91 | $765.24 | -$62.67 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
GO GoalLineGhost | SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 81.6¢ | $539.69 | $640.89 | +$101.2 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
FO foooool | SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 86.2¢ | $300 | $339.37 | +$39.37 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
 poshposh | SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 81¢ | $121.5 | $121.5 | +$0 | 60% 9116-6042 (15158) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | FC Augsburgavg 17¢ | $3.57 | $3.99 | +$0.63 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
RN1Invested
$3,909.1
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$118.59
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$827.91
Value
$765.24
PnL
-$62.67
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$539.69
Value
$640.89
PnL
+$101.2
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$300
Value
$339.37
PnL
+$39.37
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
poshposhInvested
$121.5
Value
$121.5
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
9116-6042 (15158)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.57
Value
$3.99
PnL
+$0.63
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.