Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (67%) · SG Sonnenhof Großaspach at 83¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

FC Augsburg18¢SG Sonnenhof Großaspach82¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

Consensus Traders

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 67%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$407.62

Smart Money Entry

73.7¢ → 82.5¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralSG Sonnenhof Großaspach at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Augsburg18%

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,624

Combined PnL+$444.66

FC Augsburg4 traders

Total Value$122.59

Total Shares421

Combined PnL-$37.05

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach — 67%FC Augsburg — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on SG Sonnenhof Großaspach. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFC Augsburg 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpFC Augsburg 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSG Sonnenhof Großaspach 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSG Sonnenhof Großaspach 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 86.7¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$93.66	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
GO GoalLineGhost	SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 62¢	$799.83	$1.1K	+$306.5	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 51.5¢	$71.11	$129.8	+$58.7	59% 29934-20654 (50588)
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR	FC Augsburgavg 47¢	$376	$86	-$38	57% 134-102 (236)
SN SnakeBall<$100	SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 92¢	$70.88	$61.16	-$9.72	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	FC Augsburgavg 13¢	$26.2	$28.22	+$2.02	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
RO Rocko33<$100	SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 70¢	$22.82	$22.17	-$0.65	64% 954-532 (1486)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 65¢	$20.65	$18.11	-$2.54	49% 18415-18835 (37250)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 62¢	$13.35	$13.59	+$0.24	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
FO foooool<$100	SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 65¢	$12.35	$10.83	-$1.52	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
poshposhCTR<$100	FC Augsburgavg 48¢	$8.68	$7.78	-$0.9	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
RN1CTR<$100	FC Augsburgavg 43¢	$0.75	$0.6	-$0.16	54% 55353-47409 (102762)

UpTheBlues

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

Invested

$1,047.66

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$93.66

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

GoalLineGhost

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

Invested

$799.83

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$306.5

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

Invested

$71.11

Value

$129.8

PnL

+$58.7

Record

59%

29934-20654 (50588)

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR

FC Augsburg

Invested

$376

Value

$86

PnL

-$38

Record

57%

134-102 (236)

SnakeBall<$100

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

Invested

$70.88

Value

$61.16

PnL

-$9.72

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

FC Augsburg

Invested

$26.2

Value

$28.22

PnL

+$2.02

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

Rocko33<$100

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

Invested

$22.82

Value

$22.17

PnL

-$0.65

Record

64%

954-532 (1486)

omnibus-076daa<$100

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

Invested

$20.65

Value

$18.11

PnL

-$2.54

Record

49%

18415-18835 (37250)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

Invested

$13.35

Value

$13.59

PnL

+$0.24

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

foooool<$100

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

Invested

$12.35

Value

$10.83

PnL

-$1.52

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

poshposhCTR<$100

FC Augsburg

Invested

$8.68

Value

$7.78

PnL

-$0.9

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

RN1CTR<$100

FC Augsburg

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.16

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

Research grade

NeutralSG Sonnenhof Großaspach at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on SG Sonnenhof Großaspach. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFC Augsburg 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpFC Augsburg 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSG Sonnenhof Großaspach 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSG Sonnenhof Großaspach 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SG Sonnenhof Großaspach wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.