Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold SG Sonnenhof Großaspach, while the market favors FC Augsburg (58%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (100%) · SG Sonnenhof Großaspach at 42¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
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Neutral
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
4
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 100%
1 arb excluded
$3.3K
$33.07
39.1¢ → 42¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSG Sonnenhof Großaspach at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors FC Augsburg 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | FC Augsburgavg 61.4¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$0.78 | 50% 24110-23737 (47847) |
| └ FC Augsburg leg | FC Augsburgavg 61.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$10.1 | |
| └ SG Sonnenhof Großaspach leg | SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 38.5¢ | $873.47 | $884.36 | +$10.88 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 39¢ | $657.39 | $690.38 | +$32.99 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 39.2¢ | $31.4 | $53.72 | -$2.02 | 54% 2570-2206 (4776) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 40¢ | $26.72 | $28.39 | +$1.67 | 50% 32583-32122 (64705) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspachavg 38¢ | $16.14 | $16.57 | +$0.42 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
Invested
$2,503.81
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$0.78
Record
50%
24110-23737 (47847)
Both legs:
Invested
$657.39
Value
$690.38
PnL
+$32.99
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$31.4
Value
$53.72
PnL
-$2.02
Record
54%
2570-2206 (4776)
Invested
$26.72
Value
$28.39
PnL
+$1.67
Record
50%
32583-32122 (64705)
Invested
$16.14
Value
$16.57
PnL
+$0.42
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.