Will SG Sonnenhof Großaspach win on 2026-10-27?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 93¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
1 arb excluded
$3.1K
$22.95
92¢ → 92.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fxwd12345 | Noavg 92¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$24.15 | 69% 1470-657 (2127) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 92.4¢ | $367.09 | $363.36 | -$3.73 | 50% 32583-32122 (64705) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 91.8¢ | $222.71 | $217.57 | -$5.14 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 91.8¢ | $163.89 | $166.1 | +$2.21 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 8¢ | $58.82 | $51.47 | -$7.35 | |
CA Cannae | Noavg 92¢ | $109.32 | $109.3 | -$0.02 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
FO foooool | Noavg 91¢ | $100 | $100.55 | +$0.55 | 50% 10445-10309 (20754) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $63.24 | $63.24 | +$0 | 58% 27870-20508 (48378) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $27.78 | $17 | +$2 | 58% 40396-29173 (69569) |
fxwd12345Invested
$2,222
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$24.15
Record
69%
1470-657 (2127)
Invested
$367.09
Value
$363.36
PnL
-$3.73
Record
50%
32583-32122 (64705)
Invested
$222.71
Value
$217.57
PnL
-$5.14
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.32
Value
$109.3
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
Invested
$100
Value
$100.55
PnL
+$0.55
Record
50%
10445-10309 (20754)
Invested
$63.24
Value
$63.24
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
27870-20508 (48378)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$27.78
Value
$17
PnL
+$2
Record
58%
40396-29173 (69569)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.