SG Sonnenhof Großaspach vs. FC Augsburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$1.5K
$187.78
71.2¢ → 100¢
+40% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA maxiplayer | Overavg 69¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$189.53 | 77% 679-207 (886) |
 poshposh | Overavg 82.7¢ | $175.61 | $173.21 | -$2.4 | 60% 9116-6042 (15158) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $45.43 | $39.44 | -$5.99 | 77% 3044-929 (3973) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 18.4¢ | $30.38 | $30.38 | +$0 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 64¢ | $20.48 | $28.48 | +$8 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $25.4 | $26.86 | +$1.46 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $5.76 | $2.94 | -$2.82 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
Invested
$1,037.47
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$189.53
Record
77%
679-207 (886)
poshposhInvested
$175.61
Value
$173.21
PnL
-$2.4
Record
60%
9116-6042 (15158)
Invested
$45.43
Value
$39.44
PnL
-$5.99
Record
77%
3044-929 (3973)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$30.38
Value
$30.38
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
RN1<$100Invested
$20.48
Value
$28.48
PnL
+$8
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$25.4
Value
$26.86
PnL
+$1.46
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$5.76
Value
$2.94
PnL
-$2.82
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.