Will SG Sonnenhof Großaspach vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 64¢ · $203 held · ended Oct 27

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$203.48

Combined PnL

-$1.56

Smart Money Entry

79.9¢ → 63.5¢

-21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$140.82

Total Shares187

Combined PnL-$8.6

Yes4 traders

Total Value$62.67

Total Shares153

Combined PnL+$7.04

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 87.1¢	$53.92	$52.33	-$1.6	54% 6002-5094 (11096)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 70¢	$57.47	$52.13	-$5.34	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$33.58	$33.54	-$0.04	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 89¢	$32.36	$30.73	-$1.64	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.3¢	$16.11	$18.03	+$1.92	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.8¢	$9.84	$10.01	+$5.13	53% 2036-1804 (3840)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 85¢	$5.67	$5.63	-$0.03	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$1.05	$1.09	+$0.03	54% 2609-2230 (4839)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$53.92

Value

$52.33

PnL

-$1.6

Record

54%

6002-5094 (11096)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$57.47

Value

$52.13

PnL

-$5.34

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.58

Value

$33.54

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

foooool<$100

Invested

$32.36

Value

$30.73

PnL

-$1.64

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.11

Value

$18.03

PnL

+$1.92

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.84

Value

$10.01

PnL

+$5.13

Record

53%

2036-1804 (3840)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.63

PnL

-$0.03

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.