Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (78%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-10-27?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 22¢ · $62 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 67%
$61.91
-$1.2
Research grade
AvoidNo at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $33.66 | $33.66 | +$0 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 23.3¢ | $40.33 | $21 | -$1.29 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Yesavg 77¢ | $7.16 | $7.25 | +$0.09 | 53% 2036-1804 (3840) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.