Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (79%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SC Paderborn 07 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 22¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
$3.7K
$413.69
47.8¢ → 21.5¢
-55% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 58¢ | $1.7K | $2.1K | +$354.03 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
TA Takon88CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$46.73 | 59% 44-30 (74) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $26 | $35.75 | +$9.75 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 49.4¢ | $7.23 | $10.54 | +$3.31 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $7.28 | $7.41 | +$0.13 | 50% 10533-10389 (20922) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $3.48 | $3.23 | -$0.25 | 55% 8103-6544 (14647) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $1.27 | $1.25 | -$0.01 | 58% 28123-20732 (48855) |
Invested
$1,703.35
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$354.03
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$1,495.45
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$46.73
Record
59%
44-30 (74)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$26
Value
$35.75
PnL
+$9.75
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.23
Value
$10.54
PnL
+$3.31
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
Invested
$7.28
Value
$7.41
PnL
+$0.13
Record
50%
10533-10389 (20922)
Invested
$3.48
Value
$3.23
PnL
-$0.25
Record
55%
8103-6544 (14647)
Invested
$1.27
Value
$1.25
PnL
-$0.01
Record
58%
28123-20732 (48855)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.