Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
SC Paderborn 07 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 43¢ · $675 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 17%
$675.03
-$8.72
Research grade
NeutralOver at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MR MrBentlyCTR | Overavg 54¢ | $545.39 | $535.29 | -$10.1 | 52% 514-469 (983) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $76.99 | $78.24 | +$1.25 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $47.44 | $46.98 | -$0.47 | 54% 55721-47803 (103524) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Underavg 32.1¢ | $6.71 | $7.01 | +$0.3 | 53% 15742-13910 (29652) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 41.5¢ | $5.39 | $5.4 | +$0 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $1.84 | $2.12 | +$0.29 | 57% 13143-10017 (23160) |
Invested
$545.39
Value
$535.29
PnL
-$10.1
Record
52%
514-469 (983)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$76.99
Value
$78.24
PnL
+$1.25
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
RN1<$100Invested
$47.44
Value
$46.98
PnL
-$0.47
Record
54%
55721-47803 (103524)
Invested
$6.71
Value
$7.01
PnL
+$0.3
Record
53%
15742-13910 (29652)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.39
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
Invested
$1.84
Value
$2.12
PnL
+$0.29
Record
57%
13143-10017 (23160)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.