Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold SC Paderborn 07 (50%) · SC Paderborn 07 at 54¢ · $125K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
SC Paderborn 07
10
SC Paderborn 07 50%
2 arb excluded
$125.3K
$2.7K
54.5¢ → 53.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSC Paderborn 07 at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on SC Paderborn 07. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mooseborzoii | SC Paderborn 07avg 54.4¢ | $64.2K | $66.7K | +$2.4K | 50% 1138-1132 (2270) |
NB nb1985CTR | VfB Stuttgartavg 46.3¢ | $50.0K | $50.2K | +$239.82 | 53% 23-20 (43) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | VfB Stuttgartavg 45.7¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | -$853.84 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
| └ VfB Stuttgart leg | VfB Stuttgartavg 45.7¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$878.25 | |
| └ SC Paderborn 07 leg | SC Paderborn 07avg 53.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$24.41 | |
FF ff3364CTR | VfB Stuttgartavg 47¢ | $871.46 | $880.73 | +$9.27 | 50% 786-785 (1571) |
SA Saber-greed | SC Paderborn 07avg 54¢ | $856.13 | $848.21 | -$7.93 | 59% 2526-1757 (4283) |
CA Cannae | SC Paderborn 07avg 53.2¢ | $757.29 | $771.46 | +$14.17 | 53% 15742-13910 (29652) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | VfB Stuttgartavg 46¢ | $620.86 | $627.61 | +$6.75 | 47% 2407-2692 (5099) |
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494 | SC Paderborn 07avg 53¢ | $530 | $525 | -$5 | 54% 1251-1060 (2311) |
MA Marios15tCTR | VfB Stuttgartavg 46.9¢ | $469.89 | $465.53 | -$4.36 | 48% 83-89 (172) |
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004 | SC Paderborn 07avg 67¢ | $402 | $417 | +$15 | 56% 140-110 (250) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | SC Paderborn 07avg 55.3¢ | $412 | $100.01 | +$4 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
| └ SC Paderborn 07 leg | SC Paderborn 07avg 55.3¢ | $55.34 | $53.01 | -$5 | |
| └ VfB Stuttgart leg | VfB Stuttgartavg 41¢ | $41 | $47 | +$9 | |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | VfB Stuttgartavg 35.9¢ | $2.6 | $3.7 | +$1.1 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
Invested
$64,237.92
Value
$66.7K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
50%
1138-1132 (2270)
Invested
$50,000
Value
$50.2K
PnL
+$239.82
Record
53%
23-20 (43)
Invested
$3,652
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$853.84
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Both legs:
Invested
$871.46
Value
$880.73
PnL
+$9.27
Record
50%
786-785 (1571)
Invested
$856.13
Value
$848.21
PnL
-$7.93
Record
59%
2526-1757 (4283)
Invested
$757.29
Value
$771.46
PnL
+$14.17
Record
53%
15742-13910 (29652)
Invested
$620.86
Value
$627.61
PnL
+$6.75
Record
47%
2407-2692 (5099)
Invested
$530
Value
$525
PnL
-$5
Record
54%
1251-1060 (2311)
Invested
$469.89
Value
$465.53
PnL
-$4.36
Record
48%
83-89 (172)
Invested
$402
Value
$417
PnL
+$15
Record
56%
140-110 (250)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$412
Value
$100.01
PnL
+$4
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$1.1
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
mooseborzoii
SC Paderborn 07 — $66.7K
nb1985
CTRVfB Stuttgart — $50.2K
GoalLineGhost
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ff3364
CTRVfB Stuttgart — $880.73
Saber-greed
SC Paderborn 07 — $848.21
Cannae
SC Paderborn 07 — $771.46
0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542
CTRVfB Stuttgart — $627.61
0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494
SC Paderborn 07 — $525
Marios15t
CTRVfB Stuttgart — $465.53
0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004
SC Paderborn 07 — $417