Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-10-28?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$6.66

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 93.5¢

+10% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,167

Combined PnL-$6.13

Yes2 traders

Total Value$28.52

Total Shares353

Combined PnL-$0.53

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 80¢	$453.79	$459.31	+$5.51	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
└ No leg	Noavg 80¢	$253.32	$296.07	+$42.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8¢	$200.47	$163.24	-$37.23
HRTrading	Noavg 80.8¢	$232.07	$266.98	+$34.91	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Noavg 91.9¢	$241.05	$246.15	+$5.1	81% 2406-549 (2955)
FO foooool	Noavg 81.1¢	$205.93	$188.68	-$17.25	50% 10533-10389 (20922)
RO Rocky31	Noavg 91.3¢	$191.98	$160.94	-$31.04	73% 1482-541 (2023)
RO Rocko33<$100	Noavg 78¢	$50	$49.04	-$0.96	64% 993-564 (1557)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 78¢	$46.79	$47.09	+$0.3	52% 5875-5510 (11385)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 82¢	$31.39	$32.73	+$1.34	53% 15742-13910 (29652)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 86¢	$100.66	$30.55	+$1.55	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 79¢	$16.43	$19.31	+$2.88	54% 6046-5125 (11171)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$13.93	$18.11	+$4.18	60% 9374-6357 (15731)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 93¢	$18.6	$15.3	-$3.3	76% 3921-1243 (5164)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.3¢	$15.13	$10.42	-$4.71	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 82¢	$13.81	$4.12	+$0.34	53% 2082-1842 (3924)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$453.79

Value

$459.31

PnL

+$5.51

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

Both legs:

No$253.3280¢+$42.75

Yes$200.478¢-$37.23

HRTrading

Invested

$232.07

Value

$266.98

PnL

+$34.91

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Invested

$241.05

Value

$246.15

PnL

+$5.1

Record

81%

2406-549 (2955)

foooool

Invested

$205.93

Value

$188.68

PnL

-$17.25

Record

50%

10533-10389 (20922)

Rocky31

Invested

$191.98

Value

$160.94

PnL

-$31.04

Record

73%

1482-541 (2023)

Rocko33<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$49.04

PnL

-$0.96

Record

64%

993-564 (1557)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$46.79

Value

$47.09

PnL

+$0.3

Record

52%

5875-5510 (11385)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$31.39

Value

$32.73

PnL

+$1.34

Record

53%

15742-13910 (29652)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$100.66

Value

$30.55

PnL

+$1.55

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$16.43

Value

$19.31

PnL

+$2.88

Record

54%

6046-5125 (11171)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.93

Value

$18.11

PnL

+$4.18

Record

60%

9374-6357 (15731)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

$15.3

PnL

-$3.3

Record

76%

3921-1243 (5164)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.13

Value

$10.42

PnL

-$4.71

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$13.81

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.