Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-10-28?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 59¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 28

Yes42¢No58¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$400.49

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 58.5¢

-19% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares6,026

Combined PnL-$639.43

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,081

Combined PnL+$238.94

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$1.9K	$2.8K	+$67.98	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.4¢	$722.5	$1.7K	+$169.03
└ No leg	Noavg 63.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$101.06
RN1	Noavg 81.8¢	$2.7K	$1.9K	-$746.02	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 59.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$107.33	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR	Yesavg 41¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$12.32	51% 846-799 (1645)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 19.5¢	$220.62	$468.56	+$247.94	50% 10533-10389 (20922)
CA Cannae	Noavg 80.3¢	$184.5	$183.76	-$0.74	53% 15742-13910 (29652)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR	Yesavg 45¢	$190.59	$169.46	-$21.13	63% 1740-1035 (2775)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Noavg 80¢	$63.19	$63.19	+$0	65% 1667-897 (2564)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$5.65	$5.65	+$0	64% 993-564 (1557)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$5.32	$5.17	-$0.15	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.8¢	$3.55	$3.5	-$0.05	54% 6046-5125 (11171)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,941.24

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$67.98

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

Both legs:

Yes$722.517.4¢+$169.03

No$1,218.7463.8¢-$101.06

RN1

Invested

$2,676.86

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$746.02

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,656.21

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$107.33

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

GamblingOdysseyCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,010.65

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$12.32

Record

51%

846-799 (1645)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$220.62

Value

$468.56

PnL

+$247.94

Record

50%

10533-10389 (20922)

Cannae

Invested

$184.5

Value

$183.76

PnL

-$0.74

Record

53%

15742-13910 (29652)

spyGoodLuck77CTR

Yes

Invested

$190.59

Value

$169.46

PnL

-$21.13

Record

63%

1740-1035 (2775)

darkumbreon88<$100

Invested

$63.19

Value

$63.19

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

1667-897 (2564)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.65

Value

$5.65

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

993-564 (1557)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.32

Value

$5.17

PnL

-$0.15

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

6046-5125 (11171)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.