SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 5.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 67¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 38%
$1.4K
-$20.13
79.2¢ → 66.5¢
-16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 81.7¢ | $875.41 | $712.22 | -$163.2 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
FO foooool | Underavg 71.8¢ | $285.57 | $277.78 | -$7.79 | 50% 10533-10389 (20922) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 11.6¢ | $89.87 | $244.36 | +$154.49 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 30¢ | $120.83 | $122.85 | +$2.01 | 54% 55721-47803 (103524) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 17¢ | $17 | $13.5 | -$3.5 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 20.6¢ | $9.03 | $6.79 | -$0.99 | 57% 13143-10017 (23160) |
RO Rocko33CTR<$100 | Overavg 24.4¢ | $8.58 | $6.67 | -$1.91 | 64% 993-564 (1557) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $4.58 | $5.32 | +$0.74 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
Invested
$875.41
Value
$712.22
PnL
-$163.2
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
Invested
$285.57
Value
$277.78
PnL
-$7.79
Record
50%
10533-10389 (20922)
Invested
$89.87
Value
$244.36
PnL
+$154.49
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
RN1CTRInvested
$120.83
Value
$122.85
PnL
+$2.01
Record
54%
55721-47803 (103524)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$17
Value
$13.5
PnL
-$3.5
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$9.03
Value
$6.79
PnL
-$0.99
Record
57%
13143-10017 (23160)
Invested
$8.58
Value
$6.67
PnL
-$1.91
Record
64%
993-564 (1557)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.58
Value
$5.32
PnL
+$0.74
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.