Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-10-28?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 39¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$9.0K
-$158.36
Research grade
NeutralNo at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 aibabyCTR | Noavg 39.8¢ | $21.3K | $8.3K | -$163.87 | 53% 98-88 (186) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 62.4¢ | $331.7 | $238.07 | -$1.52 | 58% 40677-29411 (70088) |
CA Cannae | Yesavg 61.7¢ | $209.69 | $211.08 | +$1.39 | 53% 15721-13896 (29617) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Yesavg 60.8¢ | $123.52 | $125.86 | +$2.34 | 58% 28040-20670 (48710) |
BA Bayupati | Yesavg 60¢ | $99 | $102.3 | +$3.3 | 51% 192-187 (379) |
aibabyCTRInvested
$21,281.44
Value
$8.3K
PnL
-$163.87
Record
53%
98-88 (186)
VeryLucky888Invested
$331.7
Value
$238.07
PnL
-$1.52
Record
58%
40677-29411 (70088)
Invested
$209.69
Value
$211.08
PnL
+$1.39
Record
53%
15721-13896 (29617)
Invested
$123.52
Value
$125.86
PnL
+$2.34
Record
58%
28040-20670 (48710)
Invested
$99
Value
$102.3
PnL
+$3.3
Record
51%
192-187 (379)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.