SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 100¢ · $401 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$401.04
$75.91
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 65.1¢ | $230.7 | $285.4 | +$99.3 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 36¢ | $132.78 | $110.65 | -$22.13 | 50% 32772-32330 (65102) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $4.77 | $4.62 | -$0.15 | 58% 28123-20732 (48855) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $1.11 | $0 | -$1.11 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$230.7
Value
$285.4
PnL
+$99.3
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$132.78
Value
$110.65
PnL
-$22.13
Record
50%
32772-32330 (65102)
Invested
$4.77
Value
$4.62
PnL
-$0.15
Record
58%
28123-20732 (48855)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.11
Value
$0
PnL
-$1.11
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.