Rot-Weiss Essen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 56%
$3.8K
-$308.67
62.1¢ → 99.3¢
+60% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 57.4¢ | $1.8K | $3.1K | +$1.3K | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 91¢ | $411.32 | $409.06 | -$2.26 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 40.6¢ | $1.7K | $156.06 | $-1.6K | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 63.9¢ | $73.49 | $80.47 | +$6.98 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 45.4¢ | $49.88 | $32.93 | -$16.95 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Underavg 88.7¢ | $38.23 | $30.18 | -$8.05 | 73% 1437-531 (1968) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 1.4¢ | $6.32 | $8.14 | +$1.82 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $2.52 | $2.8 | +$0.28 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $6.5 | $0.45 | -$1.43 | 55% 8036-6505 (14541) |
Invested
$1,789.75
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$411.32
Value
$409.06
PnL
-$2.26
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
Invested
$1,734.89
Value
$156.06
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$73.49
Value
$80.47
PnL
+$6.98
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$49.88
Value
$32.93
PnL
-$16.95
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
Invested
$38.23
Value
$30.18
PnL
-$8.05
Record
73%
1437-531 (1968)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$6.32
Value
$8.14
PnL
+$1.82
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.52
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0.28
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$1.43
Record
55%
8036-6505 (14541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.