Rot-Weiss Essen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 95¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
1 arb excluded
$3.5K
$955.54
40.2¢ → 94.5¢
+135% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 36.5¢ | $974.87 | $2.5K | +$1.5K | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
 JohnLKellyJrCTR | Overavg 25¢ | $700 | $336 | -$364 | 53% 1187-1063 (2250) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 66.7¢ | $1.9K | $248.43 | $-1.6K | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 66.7¢ | $1.9K | $195.29 | $-1.7K | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 58.2¢ | $33.24 | $53.14 | +$19.9 | |
 HRTrading | Underavg 77.4¢ | $182.29 | $220.23 | +$37.94 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
FO fooooolCTR | Overavg 19.5¢ | $366.25 | $122.36 | -$243.88 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $57.63 | $60.37 | +$1.37 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $33.04 | $45.83 | +$12.79 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $8.62 | $9.33 | +$0.72 | 60% 9116-6042 (15158) |
Invested
$974.87
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
JohnLKellyJrCTRInvested
$700
Value
$336
PnL
-$364
Record
53%
1187-1063 (2250)
Invested
$1,893.85
Value
$248.43
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Both legs:
HRTradingInvested
$182.29
Value
$220.23
PnL
+$37.94
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$366.25
Value
$122.36
PnL
-$243.88
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
Invested
$57.63
Value
$60.37
PnL
+$1.37
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
RN1<$100Invested
$33.04
Value
$45.83
PnL
+$12.79
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
poshposh<$100Invested
$8.62
Value
$9.33
PnL
+$0.72
Record
60%
9116-6042 (15158)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.