Rot-Weiss Essen vs. RB Leipzig: Team to Advance
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Rot-Weiss Essen (83%) · Rot-Weiss Essen at 54¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
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Neutral
Rot-Weiss Essen
6
Rot-Weiss Essen 83%
$1.4K
$843.68
15¢ → 53.5¢
+256% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralRot-Weiss Essen at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Rot-Weiss Essenavg 20.6¢ | $343.17 | $990.65 | +$647.48 | 59% 29934-20654 (50588) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | RB Leipzigavg 35¢ | $105 | $271.5 | +$166.5 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Rot-Weiss Essenavg 7¢ | $67.72 | $88.47 | +$20.75 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Rot-Weiss Essenavg 7¢ | $58.5 | $17.3 | +$5.56 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Rot-Weiss Essenavg 7¢ | $8.68 | $11.78 | +$3.1 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
PA Parkan312<$100 | Rot-Weiss Essenavg 8.4¢ | $2.25 | $2.53 | +$0.29 | 74% 294-101 (395) |
Invested
$343.17
Value
$990.65
PnL
+$647.48
Record
59%
29934-20654 (50588)
Invested
$105
Value
$271.5
PnL
+$166.5
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
Invested
$67.72
Value
$88.47
PnL
+$20.75
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$58.5
Value
$17.3
PnL
+$5.56
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$8.68
Value
$11.78
PnL
+$3.1
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$0.29
Record
74%
294-101 (395)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.