Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Rot-Weiss Essen (71%) · Rot-Weiss Essen at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Rot-Weiss Essen
7
Rot-Weiss Essen 71%
$1.3K
$51.51
68.8¢ → 99.6¢
+45% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralRot-Weiss Essen at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Rot-Weiss Essen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Rot-Weiss Essenavg 67¢ | $532.18 | $762.82 | +$230.64 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
UP UpTheBlues | Rot-Weiss Essenavg 70.2¢ | $189.64 | $268.22 | +$78.58 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | RB Leipzigavg 32.8¢ | $418.13 | $153.2 | -$264.93 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
FO foooool<$100 | Rot-Weiss Essenavg 86.1¢ | $67.38 | $68.9 | +$1.52 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Rot-Weiss Essenavg 56.5¢ | $45.43 | $18.44 | +$6.32 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Rot-Weiss Essenavg 56¢ | $4.72 | $7.41 | +$2.69 | 55% 1671-1366 (3037) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | RB Leipzigavg 23.9¢ | $6.66 | $3.35 | -$3.31 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
RN1Invested
$532.18
Value
$762.82
PnL
+$230.64
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$189.64
Value
$268.22
PnL
+$78.58
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$418.13
Value
$153.2
PnL
-$264.93
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$67.38
Value
$68.9
PnL
+$1.52
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$45.43
Value
$18.44
PnL
+$6.32
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$4.72
Value
$7.41
PnL
+$2.69
Record
55%
1671-1366 (3037)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.66
Value
$3.35
PnL
-$3.31
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.