Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Rot-Weiss Essen (71%) · Rot-Weiss Essen at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 27

RB Leipzig1¢Rot-Weiss Essen99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rot-Weiss Essen

Consensus Traders

Rot-Weiss Essen 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

61.7¢ → 98.9¢

+60% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralRot-Weiss Essen at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rot-Weiss Essen

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

RB Leipzig1%

Rot-Weiss Essen99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rot-Weiss Essen5 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,621

Combined PnL+$1.6K

RB Leipzig2 traders

Total Value$136.6

Total Shares525

Combined PnL-$169.75

Rot-Weiss Essen — 71%RB Leipzig — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Rot-Weiss Essen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRot-Weiss Essen 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrRB Leipzig 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedRot-Weiss Essen 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rot-Weiss Essen 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Rot-Weiss Essenavg 51.3¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$95.91	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
└ Rot-Weiss Essen leg	Rot-Weiss Essenavg 51.3¢	$1.7K	$2.4K	+$734.03
└ RB Leipzig leg	RB Leipzigavg 49.1¢	$1.4K	$717.09	-$638.12
UP UpTheBlues	Rot-Weiss Essenavg 51¢	$1.6K	$3.0K	+$1.4K	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
RN1	Rot-Weiss Essenavg 84¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$175.8	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR	RB Leipzigavg 60¢	$300	$130	-$170	65% 1204-649 (1853)
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004<$100	Rot-Weiss Essenavg 64¢	$58.37	$67.49	+$9.12	57% 134-102 (236)
CA Cannae<$100	Rot-Weiss Essenavg 34.5¢	$9.8	$21	+$11.2	53% 15683-13856 (29539)
HRTrading<$100	Rot-Weiss Essenavg 96.2¢	$11.82	$10.13	-$1.68	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	RB Leipzigavg 25¢	$6.35	$6.6	+$0.25	50% 32601-32144 (64745)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Rot-Weiss Essen

Invested

$3,016.8

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$95.91

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

Both legs:

Rot-Weiss Essen$1,661.5951.3¢+$734.03

RB Leipzig$1,355.2149.1¢-$638.12

UpTheBlues

Rot-Weiss Essen

Invested

$1,551.08

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

RN1

Rot-Weiss Essen

Invested

$1,230.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$175.8

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR

RB Leipzig

Invested

$300

Value

$130

PnL

-$170

Record

65%

1204-649 (1853)

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004<$100

Rot-Weiss Essen

Invested

$58.37

Value

$67.49

PnL

+$9.12

Record

57%

134-102 (236)

Cannae<$100

Rot-Weiss Essen

Invested

$9.8

Value

$21

PnL

+$11.2

Record

53%

15683-13856 (29539)

HRTrading<$100

Rot-Weiss Essen

Invested

$11.82

Value

$10.13

PnL

-$1.68

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

RB Leipzig

Invested

$6.35

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

Research grade

NeutralRot-Weiss Essen at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Rot-Weiss Essen

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Rot-Weiss Essen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRot-Weiss Essen 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrRB Leipzig 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedRot-Weiss Essen 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rot-Weiss Essen 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rot-Weiss Essen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.