Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-27?

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 90¢ · $34K held · ended Oct 27

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$34.3K

Combined PnL

$5.5K

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 89.5¢

+69% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$32.2K

Total Shares35,045

Combined PnL+$5.5K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares7,328

Combined PnL-$67.19

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 49.3¢	$11.5K	$12.4K	+$948.9	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
RN1	Noavg 38.5¢	$5.8K	$9.6K	+$3.8K	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 57.9¢	$4.0K	$4.8K	+$790.98	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
MY myxi	Noavg 86¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$13.49	68% 314-149 (463)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 79.1¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$144.78	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
SU sugar-superCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$959.99	$999.99	+$40	52% 368-335 (703)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR	Yesavg 59¢	$590	$500	-$90	65% 1204-649 (1853)
AP apprentice15CTR	Yesavg 14¢	$350	$375	+$25	43% 452-607 (1059)
fxwd12345	Noavg 64¢	$400	$312.5	-$87.5	69% 1474-657 (2131)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 55.5¢	$181.86	$280.31	+$98.44	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
FO foooool	Noavg 81.9¢	$339.68	$214.93	-$124.75	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$210	$195	-$15	53% 1187-1063 (2250)
HRTrading	Noavg 70.6¢	$152.67	$162.81	+$10.15	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 60.9¢	$52.1	$42.8	-$9.31	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
RO Rocko33<$100	Noavg 68¢	$50	$36.76	-$13.24	64% 954-532 (1486)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$42.5	$32.58	-$9.92	59% 29934-20654 (50588)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$28.94	$11.67	-$17.27	49% 18415-18835 (37250)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 18¢	$0.92	$2.61	-$0.1	53% 15683-13856 (29539)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$11,490.06

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$948.9

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

RN1

Invested

$5,751.65

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$4,029.27

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$790.98

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

myxi

Invested

$2,321.14

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$13.49

Record

68%

314-149 (463)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,826.28

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$144.78

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

sugar-superCTR

Yes

Invested

$959.99

Value

$999.99

PnL

+$40

Record

52%

368-335 (703)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR

Yes

Invested

$590

Value

$500

PnL

-$90

Record

65%

1204-649 (1853)

apprentice15CTR

Yes

Invested

$350

Value

$375

PnL

+$25

Record

43%

452-607 (1059)

fxwd12345

Invested

$400

Value

$312.5

PnL

-$87.5

Record

69%

1474-657 (2131)

SnakeBall

Invested

$181.86

Value

$280.31

PnL

+$98.44

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

foooool

Invested

$339.68

Value

$214.93

PnL

-$124.75

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Yes

Invested

$210

Value

$195

PnL

-$15

Record

53%

1187-1063 (2250)

HRTrading

Invested

$152.67

Value

$162.81

PnL

+$10.15

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$52.1

Value

$42.8

PnL

-$9.31

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

Rocko33<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$36.76

PnL

-$13.24

Record

64%

954-532 (1486)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.5

Value

$32.58

PnL

-$9.92

Record

59%

29934-20654 (50588)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.94

Value

$11.67

PnL

-$17.27

Record

49%

18415-18835 (37250)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$0.92

Value

$2.61

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

15683-13856 (29539)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.