Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Rot-Weiss Essen vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to Score
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 49¢ · $879 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$878.89
$2.57
47.3¢ → 48.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081ARB<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $424.3 | $424.3 | -$2.19 | 50% 216-214 (430) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53¢ | $231.61 | $231.61 | -$2.19 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 47¢ | $192.69 | $192.69 | -$0 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 47.2¢ | $346.72 | $348.77 | +$2.05 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $69.6 | $68.15 | -$1.45 | 58% 27870-20508 (48378) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 51.6¢ | $138.13 | $33.31 | +$1.93 | 58% 40396-29173 (69569) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $4.24 | $4.36 | +$0.04 | 54% 2570-2206 (4776) |
Invested
$424.3
Value
$424.3
PnL
-$2.19
Record
50%
216-214 (430)
Both legs:
Invested
$346.72
Value
$348.77
PnL
+$2.05
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
Invested
$69.6
Value
$68.15
PnL
-$1.45
Record
58%
27870-20508 (48378)
VeryLucky888Invested
$138.13
Value
$33.31
PnL
+$1.93
Record
58%
40396-29173 (69569)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.24
Value
$4.36
PnL
+$0.04
Record
54%
2570-2206 (4776)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.