Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 5.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 52¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$3.7K
$161.25
36.9¢ → 52¢
+41% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 59.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$168.65 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
 RN1 | Overavg 38.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$201.85 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 44.5¢ | $574.74 | $672.01 | +$97.27 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 21¢ | $175.77 | $192.51 | +$16.74 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
FO fooooolCTR | Underavg 66¢ | $86.13 | $100.49 | +$14.36 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $2.55 | $2.21 | -$0.34 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $1.13 | $1.15 | +$0.02 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
Invested
$1,716.32
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$168.65
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
RN1Invested
$1,008.03
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$201.85
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$574.74
Value
$672.01
PnL
+$97.27
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$175.77
Value
$192.51
PnL
+$16.74
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$86.13
Value
$100.49
PnL
+$14.36
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.21
PnL
-$0.34
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$1.13
Value
$1.15
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.