Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 4.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 78¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
1 arb excluded
$7.3K
$1.2K
52.9¢ → 78¢
+47% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 35¢ | $2.1K | $3.7K | +$1.6K | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
 fxwd12345 | Overavg 90¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$0 | 69% 1482-662 (2144) |
 RN1 | Overavg 56.6¢ | $882.73 | $1.2K | +$364.03 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 39.4¢ | $1.2K | $298.2 | -$877.4 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 HRTrading | Overavg 36¢ | $88.09 | $165.11 | +$77.02 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $149.83 | $88.93 | -$60.9 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 69.5¢ | $49.83 | $49.83 | +$0 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 78¢ | $100 | $39.1 | -$60.9 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $71.82 | $71.82 | +$0 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $14.18 | $18.9 | +$4.72 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
Invested
$2,069.37
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
fxwd12345Invested
$1,800
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
1482-662 (2144)
RN1Invested
$882.73
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$364.03
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$1,175.6
Value
$298.2
PnL
-$877.4
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
HRTradingInvested
$88.09
Value
$165.11
PnL
+$77.02
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$149.83
Value
$88.93
PnL
-$60.9
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Both legs:
Invested
$71.82
Value
$71.82
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
Invested
$14.18
Value
$18.9
PnL
+$4.72
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.