Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 3.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 71%
$9.5K
$2.2K
65.1¢ → 100¢
+54% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 56.7¢ | $2.9K | $4.7K | +$1.8K | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 56¢ | $1.9K | $2.3K | +$368.19 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 fxwd12345 | Overavg 92¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$12.22 | 69% 1482-662 (2144) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 55.5¢ | $111 | $120 | +$9 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
MR MrBently | Overavg 57¢ | $99.75 | $103.25 | +$3.5 | 52% 514-470 (984) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $2.85 | $3.07 | +$0.22 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $1.33 | $1.13 | -$0.2 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
RN1Invested
$2,894.84
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$1,904.02
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$368.19
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
fxwd12345Invested
$2,248.37
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$12.22
Record
69%
1482-662 (2144)
VeryLucky888Invested
$111
Value
$120
PnL
+$9
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$99.75
Value
$103.25
PnL
+$3.5
Record
52%
514-470 (984)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$3.07
PnL
+$0.22
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$1.33
Value
$1.13
PnL
-$0.2
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.