Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$4.6K
-$364.59
96¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fxwd12345 | Overavg 95¢ | $3.8K | $3.2K | -$620 | 69% 1482-662 (2144) |
ZX zxc368 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $972.04 | $972.52 | +$0.49 | 99% 12681-184 (12865) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 8.7¢ | $120.43 | $282.92 | +$162.5 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 5.1¢ | $35.59 | $144.15 | +$108.55 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 26¢ | $76.21 | $60.08 | -$16.13 | 53% 15742-13912 (29654) |
fxwd12345Invested
$3,800
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$620
Record
69%
1482-662 (2144)
Invested
$972.04
Value
$972.52
PnL
+$0.49
Record
99%
12681-184 (12865)
Invested
$120.43
Value
$282.92
PnL
+$162.5
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$35.59
Value
$144.15
PnL
+$108.55
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$76.21
Value
$60.08
PnL
-$16.13
Record
53%
15742-13912 (29654)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.