Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-3.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold 1. FC Nürnberg (50%) · 1. FC Nürnberg at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Bayer 04 Leverkusen2¢1. FC Nürnberg98¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

1. FC Nürnberg

Consensus Traders

1. FC Nürnberg 50%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$110.26

Smart Money Entry

82.2¢ → 98¢

+19% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

Neutral1. FC Nürnberg at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1. FC Nürnberg

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bayer 04 Leverkusen2%

1. FC Nürnberg98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

1. FC Nürnberg2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,605

Combined PnL-$126.36

Bayer 04 Leverkusen2 traders

Total Value$48.36

Total Shares182

Combined PnL+$16.1

1. FC Nürnberg — 50%Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	1. FC Nürnbergavg 79.6¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$126.63	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
FO foooool	1. FC Nürnbergavg 91.9¢	$500	$500.27	+$0.27	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Bayer 04 Leverkusenavg 17¢	$20.48	$31.93	+$11.45	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Bayer 04 Leverkusenavg 19¢	$11.78	$16.43	+$4.65	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

GoalLineGhost

1. FC Nürnberg

Invested

$1,641.73

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$126.63

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

foooool

1. FC Nürnberg

Invested

$500

Value

$500.27

PnL

+$0.27

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Invested

$20.48

Value

$31.93

PnL

+$11.45

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Invested

$11.78

Value

$16.43

PnL

+$4.65

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

Neutral1. FC Nürnberg at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1. FC Nürnberg

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 1. FC Nürnberg wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.