Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bayer 04 Leverkusen, while the market favors 1. FC Nürnberg (96%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bayer 04 Leverkusen (33%) · Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 4.0¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 28

Bayer 04 Leverkusen4¢1. FC Nürnberg96¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Consensus Traders

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 33%

Total Value

$13.9K

Combined PnL

$244.42

Smart Money Entry

36.8¢ → 4¢

-89% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidBayer 04 Leverkusen at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors 1. FC Nürnberg 96%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bayer 04 Leverkusen4%

1. FC Nürnberg96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bayer 04 Leverkusen2 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares29,032

Combined PnL+$338.78

1. FC Nürnberg4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,643

Combined PnL-$94.36

Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 33%1. FC Nürnberg — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Bayer 04 Leverkusenavg 36.8¢	$10.0K	$10.3K	+$338.38	48% 129-138 (267)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	1. FC Nürnbergavg 64¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$80	47% 2415-2698 (5113)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Bayer 04 Leverkusenavg 38¢	$702.4	$702.8	+$0.4	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
VeryLucky888	1. FC Nürnbergavg 63.5¢	$280.59	$248	-$10	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
SN SnakeBall	1. FC Nürnbergavg 86.5¢	$123.91	$122.55	-$1.36	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
HRTrading<$100	1. FC Nürnbergavg 63¢	$63.01	$60.01	-$3	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Invested

$9,991.05

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$338.38

Record

48%

129-138 (267)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

1. FC Nürnberg

Invested

$2,560

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$80

Record

47%

2415-2698 (5113)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Invested

$702.4

Value

$702.8

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

VeryLucky888

1. FC Nürnberg

Invested

$280.59

Value

$248

PnL

-$10

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

SnakeBall

1. FC Nürnberg

Invested

$123.91

Value

$122.55

PnL

-$1.36

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

HRTrading<$100

1. FC Nürnberg

Invested

$63.01

Value

$60.01

PnL

-$3

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

AvoidBayer 04 Leverkusen at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors 1. FC Nürnberg 96%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.2%

4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1809.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

1909.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.