Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bayer 04 Leverkusen, while the market favors 1. FC Nürnberg (89%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bayer 04 Leverkusen (25%) · Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 11¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 28

Bayer 04 Leverkusen11¢1. FC Nürnberg89¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Consensus Traders

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 25%

Total Value

$16.5K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 11¢

-81% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidBayer 04 Leverkusen at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors 1. FC Nürnberg 89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bayer 04 Leverkusen11%

1. FC Nürnberg89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bayer 04 Leverkusen2 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares16,462

Combined PnL+$137.78

1. FC Nürnberg6 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares12,444

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 25%1. FC Nürnberg — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale1. FC Nürnberg 100% · 1

Diverging

ctr1. FC Nürnberg 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-picked1. FC Nürnberg 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 10001. FC Nürnberg 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Bayer 04 Leverkusenavg 56.8¢	$8.4K	$8.6K	+$179.69	48% 129-138 (267)
UP UpTheBlues	1. FC Nürnbergavg 43¢	$2.5K	$3.8K	+$1.4K	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
RN1	1. FC Nürnbergavg 43¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$225.05	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Bayer 04 Leverkusenavg 60.5¢	$1.0K	$973.83	-$41.9	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
SE sentrio	1. FC Nürnbergavg 42¢	$443.42	$443.42	+$0	50% 24862-24562 (49424)
CA Cannae	1. FC Nürnbergavg 43.4¢	$158.7	$153.6	-$5.1	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
VeryLucky888	1. FC Nürnbergavg 43.1¢	$373.49	$84.16	-$28.64	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
HRTrading<$100	1. FC Nürnbergavg 34.8¢	$12.04	$16.17	+$4.13	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Invested

$8,394.7

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$179.69

Record

48%

129-138 (267)

UpTheBlues

1. FC Nürnberg

Invested

$2,482.26

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

RN1

1. FC Nürnberg

Invested

$2,154.7

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$225.05

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Invested

$1,015.73

Value

$973.83

PnL

-$41.9

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

sentrio

1. FC Nürnberg

Invested

$443.42

Value

$443.42

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

24862-24562 (49424)

Cannae

1. FC Nürnberg

Invested

$158.7

Value

$153.6

PnL

-$5.1

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

VeryLucky888

1. FC Nürnberg

Invested

$373.49

Value

$84.16

PnL

-$28.64

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

HRTrading<$100

1. FC Nürnberg

Invested

$12.04

Value

$16.17

PnL

+$4.13

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

AvoidBayer 04 Leverkusen at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors 1. FC Nürnberg 89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale1. FC Nürnberg 100% · 1

Diverging

ctr1. FC Nürnberg 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-picked1. FC Nürnberg 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 10001. FC Nürnberg 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.5%

11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$698.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

798.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.