Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-28?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 37¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 28

Yes63¢No37¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

-$725.18

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 37¢

-27% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,605

Combined PnL-$716.3

Yes5 traders

Total Value$844.32

Total Shares1,529

Combined PnL-$8.88

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 53.8¢	$6.9K	$5.4K	$-1.5K	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ No leg	Noavg 53.8¢	$4.7K	$2.9K	$-1.8K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.1¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$240.95
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 58.6¢	$4.0K	$3.2K	-$757.67	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.5¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$86.63
└ No leg	Noavg 58.6¢	$2.2K	$1.4K	-$844.31
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 49.5¢	$1.3K	$990.22	-$298.83	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 51.4¢	$842.69	$825.11	-$17.58	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.4¢	$469.4	$607.4	+$138
└ No leg	Noavg 57.4¢	$373.29	$217.71	-$155.58
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 56.6¢	$1.3K	$810.23	-$481.83	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Yesavg 69.8¢	$522.64	$524.09	+$1.45	63% 1740-1035 (2775)
CA Cannae	Yesavg 80¢	$160.33	$155.48	-$6.81	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
Fuentes31	Yesavg 27¢	$150	$147.22	-$2.78	53% 651-575 (1226)
BE BetzikoCTR	Noavg 46.3¢	$81.05	$126.88	+$45.83	54% 6053-5127 (11180)
PA pauleta23CTR	Noavg 55¢	$91.14	$110.2	+$19.06	67% 23116-11520 (34636)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$87.5	$84	-$3.5	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$14.22	$17.19	+$2.97	64% 997-567 (1564)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$11.7	$11.17	-$0.53	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$6.57	$6.36	-$0.21	60% 9402-6388 (15790)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$6,927.26

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

No$4,671.0153.8¢$-1.8K

Yes$2,256.2560.1¢+$240.95

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$3,991.36

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$757.67

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

Both legs:

Yes$1,750.460.5¢+$86.63

No$2,240.9758.6¢-$844.31

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$1,289.04

Value

$990.22

PnL

-$298.83

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$842.69

Value

$825.11

PnL

-$17.58

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

Both legs:

Yes$469.451.4¢+$138

No$373.2957.4¢-$155.58

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$1,292.06

Value

$810.23

PnL

-$481.83

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

spyGoodLuck77

Yes

Invested

$522.64

Value

$524.09

PnL

+$1.45

Record

63%

1740-1035 (2775)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$160.33

Value

$155.48

PnL

-$6.81

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

Fuentes31

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$147.22

PnL

-$2.78

Record

53%

651-575 (1226)

BetzikoCTR

Invested

$81.05

Value

$126.88

PnL

+$45.83

Record

54%

6053-5127 (11180)

pauleta23CTR

Invested

$91.14

Value

$110.2

PnL

+$19.06

Record

67%

23116-11520 (34636)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$87.5

Value

$84

PnL

-$3.5

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Invested

$14.22

Value

$17.19

PnL

+$2.97

Record

64%

997-567 (1564)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.7

Value

$11.17

PnL

-$0.53

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.57

Value

$6.36

PnL

-$0.21

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.