Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-10-28?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$2.12

Smart Money Entry

92.4¢ → 91.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,257

Combined PnL+$26.65

Yes2 traders

Total Value$59.9

Total Shares1,089

Combined PnL-$24.53

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 92¢	$816.5	$838.69	+$22.19	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 93.3¢	$338.25	$337.83	+$4.29	58% 40750-29469 (70219)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$81.61	$57.31	-$24.3	59% 44604-31003 (75607)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 93¢	$11.16	$11.34	+$0.18	53% 15741-13910 (29651)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$2.82	$2.59	-$0.24	53% 3046-2708 (5754)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$816.5

Value

$838.69

PnL

+$22.19

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$338.25

Value

$337.83

PnL

+$4.29

Record

58%

40750-29469 (70219)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.61

Value

$57.31

PnL

-$24.3

Record

59%

44604-31003 (75607)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$11.16

Value

$11.34

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

15741-13910 (29651)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$0.24

Record

53%

3046-2708 (5754)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.