Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 72¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$118.68

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 71.5¢

-12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$813.1

Total Shares1,070

Combined PnL-$62.44

Yes3 traders

Total Value$229.48

Total Shares1,271

Combined PnL-$56.24

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 83.7¢	$538.34	$480.99	-$57.35	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 86.2¢	$442.08	$420.88	-$21.2	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
└ No leg	Noavg 86.2¢	$267.09	$218.49	-$48.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.5¢	$174.99	$202.38	+$27.39
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR	Yesavg 28¢	$224	$180	-$44	56% 140-110 (250)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Noavg 78.9¢	$180.67	$177.48	-$3.19	63% 1740-1035 (2775)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 75.7¢	$81.04	$81.32	+$0.28	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 74¢	$65.05	$70.56	+$5.51	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
└ No leg	Noavg 74¢	$39.14	$40.99	+$1.85
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.7¢	$25.91	$29.57	+$3.66
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 77¢	$70.38	$68.07	-$2.31	54% 6053-5127 (11180)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$41.04	$35.91	-$5.13	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$20.68	$13.57	-$7.11	52% 5884-5521 (11405)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 76¢	$4.03	$4.16	+$0.13	53% 2082-1842 (3924)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 72¢	$1.08	$1.09	+$0.01	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$538.34

Value

$480.99

PnL

-$57.35

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$442.08

Value

$420.88

PnL

-$21.2

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

Both legs:

No$267.0986.2¢-$48.59

Yes$174.9925.5¢+$27.39

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR

Yes

Invested

$224

Value

$180

PnL

-$44

Record

56%

140-110 (250)

spyGoodLuck77

Invested

$180.67

Value

$177.48

PnL

-$3.19

Record

63%

1740-1035 (2775)

foooool<$100

Invested

$81.04

Value

$81.32

PnL

+$0.28

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$65.05

Value

$70.56

PnL

+$5.51

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

Both legs:

No$39.1474¢+$1.85

Yes$25.9119.7¢+$3.66

Betziko<$100

Invested

$70.38

Value

$68.07

PnL

-$2.31

Record

54%

6053-5127 (11180)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.04

Value

$35.91

PnL

-$5.13

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.68

Value

$13.57

PnL

-$7.11

Record

52%

5884-5521 (11405)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$4.03

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.