Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: Both Teams to Score
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 100¢ · $280 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$279.82
-$7.96
63.8¢ → 100¢
+57% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 59.5¢ | $121.76 | $116.71 | -$5.05 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 52.1¢ | $77.63 | $84.93 | +$7.3 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $54.95 | $54.97 | +$0.03 | 99% 12681-184 (12865) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Yesavg 85¢ | $28.33 | $19 | -$9.33 | 76% 3927-1248 (5175) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $3.88 | $3.88 | -$0 | 53% 2082-1842 (3924) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.2¢ | $1.24 | $0.33 | -$0.91 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$121.76
Value
$116.71
PnL
-$5.05
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$77.63
Value
$84.93
PnL
+$7.3
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$54.95
Value
$54.97
PnL
+$0.03
Record
99%
12681-184 (12865)
Invested
$28.33
Value
$19
PnL
-$9.33
Record
76%
3927-1248 (5175)
Invested
$3.88
Value
$3.88
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
2082-1842 (3924)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.24
Value
$0.33
PnL
-$0.91
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.