Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Holstein Kiel vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 49¢ · $22K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$22.2K
-$679.93
51.2¢ → 48.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 51¢ | $13.1K | $12.5K | -$642.85 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
 us391CTR | Overavg 51.6¢ | $7.4K | $7.2K | -$164.13 | 51% 1646-1580 (3226) |
RA rabbitfoot1 | Underavg 48¢ | $2.0K | $2.2K | +$146.2 | 53% 1103-975 (2078) |
BE berlinskiesCTR | Overavg 51.9¢ | $314.95 | $294.47 | -$20.48 | 58% 5761-4227 (9988) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $44.33 | $45.66 | +$1.33 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
Invested
$13,114.65
Value
$12.5K
PnL
-$642.85
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
us391CTRInvested
$7,401.27
Value
$7.2K
PnL
-$164.13
Record
51%
1646-1580 (3226)
Invested
$2,005.02
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$146.2
Record
53%
1103-975 (2078)
Invested
$314.95
Value
$294.47
PnL
-$20.48
Record
58%
5761-4227 (9988)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$44.33
Value
$45.66
PnL
+$1.33
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.