Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-10-28?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 88¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$2.7K
-$12.89
84.4¢ → 88¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 84¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$6.38 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 84¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$6.19 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 84¢ | $336 | $338 | +$2 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 92.8¢ | $136.08 | $119.91 | -$16.16 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $65.13 | $65.51 | +$0.39 | 65% 1668-897 (2565) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $55.9 | $54.93 | -$0.98 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.4¢ | $26.69 | $28.74 | +$2.06 | 53% 15742-13912 (29654) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $0.2 | $0.2 | -$0.01 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
RN1Invested
$1,072.16
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$6.38
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$1,040.02
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$6.19
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
VeryLucky888Invested
$336
Value
$338
PnL
+$2
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$136.08
Value
$119.91
PnL
-$16.16
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$65.13
Value
$65.51
PnL
+$0.39
Record
65%
1668-897 (2565)
Invested
$55.9
Value
$54.93
PnL
-$0.98
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$26.69
Value
$28.74
PnL
+$2.06
Record
53%
15742-13912 (29654)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$0.01
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.