Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-28?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 60¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28

Yes60¢No40¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 59.5¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares5,403

Combined PnL-$69.98

No2 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares8,086

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 63.4¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$36.74	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR	Noavg 37.8¢	$3.0K	$1.6K	$-1.4K	63% 1740-1035 (2775)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$74.05	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62¢	$1.0K	$994.73	-$8.32
└ No leg	Noavg 32.1¢	$414.8	$497.17	+$82.37
RN1	Yesavg 62.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$33.71	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Noavg 22¢	$209.33	$299.19	+$89.86	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
└ No leg	Noavg 22¢	$114.89	$200.74	+$85.85
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59¢	$94.45	$98.45	+$4
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 34.3¢	$143.54	$147.74	+$4.21	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
└ No leg	Noavg 34.3¢	$106.58	$111.9	+$5.33
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66¢	$36.96	$35.84	-$1.12
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 60.1¢	$53.97	$55.26	+$1.29	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$54.94	$51.8	-$3.14	59% 30106-20832 (50938)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 65.1¢	$50.83	$49.98	-$0.84	53% 2082-1842 (3924)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$1.7	$1.73	+$0.03	58% 40796-29505 (70301)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,365.79

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$36.74

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

spyGoodLuck77CTR

Invested

$3,000

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

63%

1740-1035 (2775)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,417.85

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$74.05

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

Both legs:

Yes$1,003.0562¢-$8.32

No$414.832.1¢+$82.37

RN1

Yes

Invested

$1,225.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$33.71

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Invested

$209.33

Value

$299.19

PnL

+$89.86

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

Both legs:

No$114.8922¢+$85.85

Yes$94.4559¢+$4

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$143.54

Value

$147.74

PnL

+$4.21

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

Both legs:

Invested

$53.97

Value

$55.26

PnL

+$1.29

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$54.94

Value

$51.8

PnL

-$3.14

Record

59%

30106-20832 (50938)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.83

Value

$49.98

PnL

-$0.84

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.